June 27, 2019 | By Lee Spencer

NASCAR: It's time for the Bubble Boys to make their move

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series has produced a statistically low six different winners in the first 16 races this season.

Sure, that makes great fodder for talk radio and columnists, but the statistics are no different from last year’s results after Sonoma Raceway. Only the players have changed. Instead of four teams dominating the first 16 events in 2018, two organizations—Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske drivers have won all but one race this year.

The good news for fans who support drivers not named Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano or Brad Keselowski is that four additional winners emerged over the 10 races leading into the Playoffs last year.

First-time winners Erik Jones and Chase Elliott emerged during the summer months at Daytona and Watkins Glen, respectively. Kurt Busch collected his sixth-career win at Bristol. And Brad Keselowski went on a remarkable run of three-consecutive victories, including the Southern 500, the Brickyard 400 and the first race of the Playoffs at Las Vegas.

While none of those wins changed the list of the drivers who qualified for the post-season—the same 16 competitors advanced to the Playoffs—a victory could be a game changer in 2019.

Currently, Alex Bowman and Aric Almirola are tied for 10th-place with 460 points. Twelfth-place Clint Bowyer has accumulated 430 points. But only 35 points separate 13th-place Daniel Suarez  (421) from 18th-place Jones. 

Which of the drivers outside of the top 12 have a chance to make a move over the final 10 races remaining in the regular season?

1. Daniel Suarez—Suarez, 27, is trending in the right direction. His average finish is nearly five positions better than last year. He has already led more laps in 16 races than he did in all of 2018. After three seasons in Cup—and in exceptional equipment—Suarez has yet to win. Yes, he has been close and consistent. But if none of his veteran Stewart-Haas Racing teammates can break into Victory Lane, it’s unlikely that Suarez will beat them there.

2. William Byron—Byron has avoided the sophomore slump, because he had nowhere to go but up. Under the direction of Chad Knaus, the 21-year-old Charlottean has improved his qualifying effort dramatically with three poles and an average starting position of 10.8. The improved track position has enabled Byron to lead 171 laps this year—110 more circuits than during his rookie season—and win a stage. Byron has already equalled his top 10s for 2018, including three results of ninth or better in the last three races. But without a top five in 52 races, the jury is out on when and if he will win.

3. Kyle Larson—Larson is an enigma. How can one of the most talented racers in NASCAR not be able to compete on a weekly basis? After a four-win season in 2017, this isn’t a case of an open-wheel driver not capable of making the transition to stock cars. Larson, 26, has proven the ability is there. His Ganassi Racing teammate Kurt Busch has proven it’s not the quality of the equipment. However, it might just be the equipment—or in this case, new configuration of car with 400 less horsepower than Larson has when he runs with the World of Outlaws. Whatever the roadblock, someone needs to fix it.

4. Ryan Newman—Who would have thought Newman could be a feel-good story in 2019? After a slow start to the season—which was understandable after moving to a new team—the 41-year-old veteran has posted five top-10 finishes in his last nine races. It’s the first time in four years that the No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing Ford was in the top 20—let alone in the Playoff zone. Newman is enjoying his best average qualifying effort in four years. He’s completed all but eight laps of competition this year—but has yet to lead a lap. Crew chief Scott Graves will have to get creative to pull off a victory, but don’t count out the No. 6 Ford yet. Newman’s experience is helping him survive alongside the powerhouses while some of his peers are driving over their heads.

5. Jimmie Johnson—The only sign of life from the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team this year came at Texas, where Johnson earned his 36th-career Cup pole and posted his first—and only—top-five finish of the season. Since undergoing a crew chief change (Kevin Meendering) for the first time in 18 seasons, Johnson has improved his average starting and finishing positions. His 68 laps at the point are more than he led all of last season. Johnson has won at all but four of the current tracks on the Cup schedule. Of the 10 tracks leading to the Playoffs, Johnson is still looking for wins at Chicagoland, Kentucky and Watkins Glen. However, JJ’s sole Xfinity Series win came at Chicago in 2001.

6. Erik Jones—Jones’ four top fives and seven top 10s leads all of the aforementioned drivers—that’s understandable given the strength of the JGR stable. He’s also led the category when it comes to inconsistency and bad luck—and Sonoma was no exception. Jones had to start from the rear for unapproved adjustments after blowing a tire and damaging his car during qualifying. While he would have been ecstatic with a top 15, Jones soldiered on to an eighth-place finish. The No. 20 team needs to use this momentum for a strong summer charge. Jones used the energy he derived from top-10 finishes last year at Sonoma and Chicagoland to score his first Cup win at Daytona. He most certainly could find himself in Victory Lane again next weekend.