October 10, 2019 | By Lee Spencer

Trends to consider when picking favorites for Talladega

To compare Talladega Superspeedway to a crapshoot doesn’t do justice to the 2.66-mile track.

The risks are many, particularly when drivers wheel their race cars in tight packs at more than 190 miles per hour. A split-second decision can spell the difference between winning the race or winding up in the fence.

And during the Playoffs, a disaster at Talladega can signal the end of a successful season, no matter how many wins a contender racked up in the regular season.

“We can put as much effort as we want or as little effort as we want, but it’s never going to guarantee that you aren’t going to crash or have a bad day there,” said Chase Elliott, who won the spring race in a car that featured NASCAR’s new superspeedway aerodynamic package. “I expect we’ll do our part on our end to try and make as good of a day as we can out of it, but no guarantees.”

For four years, Ford Racing had a Talladega stranglehold—winning the seven races prior to Elliott’s victory in April. Team Penske drivers have won six of the last nine Talladega contests. But in the spring, the Bow-tie Brigade combined forces and swept the podium with Elliott, Alex Bowman and Ryan Preece.

Elliott’s results with the car weren’t nearly as stellar in July at Daytona, where he finished 35th. Still, he boasts three top-fives in seven Talladega races and holds the best average qualifying and finish among drivers with multiple starts.

Elliott takes solace in knowing there is power in numbers when drafting comes into play.

“It’s going to look really similar to what it did at Talladega in the spring and Daytona in the summer,” Elliott said. “We made a pretty conscious effort with our manufacturer of Chevrolet to try and do a better job of working together.

“It worked at Talladega. A lot of us crashed, but at least a Chevrolet still won the summer race at Daytona. Hopefully, it works out.”

Entering this weekend’s 1000bulbs.com 500, only last weekend’s Dover winner Kyle Larson and likely points leader Martin Truex Jr.—who is 63 points ahead of eighth-place William Byron—are safe when it comes to advancing to Round 3.

After Elliott’s engine failed eight laps into the Drydene 400 last Sunday, the driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy sits seven points below the cut line for the Round of 8. While passing three drivers isn’t an insurmountable task, there are no guarantees at Talladega.

Denny Hamlin believes self-reliance goes a long way at superspeedways—where he has two Daytona 500s trophies and one at Talladega.

“It’s definitely a wild card,” Hamlin said. “Most anyone can win at Talladega. Strategy plays such a big role. Not by the crew chief, by the driver.

“Trying to put yourself in the right lane at the right time is the name of the game.”

Hamlin entered the Playoffs on a hot streak, but the No. 11 team has cooled since winning from the pole at Bristol—his fourth-straight podium finish. Although Hamlin is 15 points behind Joe Gibbs Racing teammate and points leader Martin Truex Jr., he’s 48 points above Byron.

“We just have to stay on our game,” Hamlin said. “Talladega is known as the biggest and the fastest course in the circuit. We’ve finished top five there six times, including a win, so we have had success.

“We just want to stay focused and patient so we can continue to climb up the leaderboard and be up front at the end.”

Here’s how the rest of the Playoff contenders measure up entering Talladega:

1) Brad Keselowski—Unlike most other drivers, Keselowski looks at Talladega as an opportunity. He  leads all current Monster Energy NASCAR Cup drivers at Talladega with five wins. His average finish is 15.6—the best among current Playoff drivers with 10 or more starts at the track. Keselowski finished 13th with the new package in the spring and led 10 laps.

2) Joey Logano—The other driver in Penske’s dynamic duo has won three times in his last eight Talladega starts and has averaged a 9.1 finish over that period. Since moving to team Penske in 2013, it has been wreckers or checkers at the 2.66-mile speedway, as Logano has also ended up on the hook in three races. Logano won the pole with this package at Daytona but finished 25th after he was collected in two wrecks. After finishing 34th at Dover, Logano needs a solid day to pull him out of ninth in points.

3) Clint Bowyer—Bowyer could be a sleeper on Sunday. He has won twice at Talladega and finished second in this race last year. The new speedway aero package has not been kind to the driver of the No. 14 Ford at Talladega and Daytona where he finished 29th and 34th, respectively, in the regular season. Although Bowyer is currently 10th in the standings, he has accumulated the sixth most race points in the first four races of the Playoffs. A solid finish could vault him to the next round.

4) Kevin Harvick—Happy is savvy when it comes to superspeedway racing but still ended up on the sidelines in April when he was collected in a six-car melee on Lap 12.  Although he was running at the finish at Daytona, he still finished 29th. Harvick’s only Talladega win came with Richard Childress Racing in 2010, but he has run solidly with Roush Yates power under his hood. Since switching to Fords, Harvick has led laps in three of his last five starts. While some Playoff drivers have hit the skids of late, in the last six races Harvick’s average finish is 3.5.

5) Kyle Busch—Busch was a favorite for the title entering the season but has lost consistency since the Playoffs began. Busch is currently third in the standings, but 11th of the 12 Playoff drivers in the number of points gained over the first four races of the postseason. Although he has complained about the new aero package, at Talladega and Daytona earlier this season, his average finish was 12th. His sole win at Talladega came in 2008—his first year with JGR.

6) Martin Truex Jr.—Truex has amassed 200 points in the first four races of the postseason. It’s a good thing Truex has such a sizable lead entering this weekend. He has won on a variety of venues but not the ones formerly called restrictor-plate tracks. With the current aero package, Truex averaged 21st at  Talladega and Daytona. When it comes to average finishes, his 21.3 at Talladega is tied for his second-worst, along with Indianapolis. He has ended up in the garage in three of his last five starts.

7) Ryan Blaney—Blaney is in a world of hurt entering the second race of the second round of the Playoffs. He has collected just 96 points in the postseason and is 22 points below the cut line. Blaney posted his first top-15 finish in his last five starts at Talladega in April. He really needs to lean on his veteran teammates this weekend if he hopes to turn his playoffs around.

8) Kyle Larson—Larson landed on his lid at Talladega in the spring. Not surprisingly, he’s ecstatic to have a mulligan for Round 2 with his Dover win. That victory also elevated the No. 42 Ganassi Racing team to fifth in the standings and third on the list of points accumulated in the Playoffs. Larson has just two top 10s at Talladega.

9) Alex Bowman—Bowman scored a career-best second-place finish at Talladega in the spring to bring his average finish in the Geico 500 to fifth since joining Hendrick Motorsports. Unfortunately, he doesn’t run as well here in the fall. His average in the 1000bulbs.com 500 is 34.5. The No. 88 Chevy is trending in the right direction, with three finishes of sixth or higher in the post-season.

10) William Byron—Byron has three starts at Talladega and an average finish of 23.3. He won the pole for the Daytona 500 and led 44 laps before ending up on the hook. The 21-year-old driver of the No. 24 Chevy finished second there in July when the race was shortened by rain. Byron is currently eighth in the standings but tied with Logano in points. If he has a secret weapon, it’s seven-time championship crew chief Chad Knaus.