November 13, 2019 | By Lee Spencer

Hamlin has the opportunity to prove he can win the big one

MIAMI—Sixteen years ago, J.D. Gibbs discovered a diamond in the rough in Denny Hamlin.

The driver was plucked from the Southeastern short tracks and thrust into stock car’s top series at the age of 24.

In essence, Gibbs handed Hamlin the brass ring.

Overnight, Hamlin was a baller—complete with a mansion, jets, cars, women, a bigger mansion with a regulation basketball court and bowling alley, a bigger jet, court-side seats for the Hornets, and more women.

But a closer, he was not.

Sure, Hamlin finished third in the Cup standings in his first full season on the tour. It would be another four years before he battled for the Cup title in 2010. The four-year cycle continued in 2014—the only time Hamlin advanced to the Championship 4 round in the Playoffs until now.

His peaks of relevance over the last 14 seasons have been cyclical as well. At times Hamlin’s antics away from the track were more noteworthy than his on-track performance. Hamlin could qualify for the post-season, but never really went anywhere.

Last year, Hamlin advanced to the Playoffs but endured the first winless season of his Cup career. He had the speed—his four poles were the second most of Hamlin’s career. But again, he just couldn’t close.

J.D. Gibbs was always Hamlin’s greatest advocate. Sponsor FedEx has been a loyal supporter.  But after the mediocrity of the 2018 season, and the passing of Gibbs in January, speculation about Hamlin’s longevity at Joe Gibbs Racing—or possible lack thereof—began to percolate.

Despite FedEx announcing the extension of its sponsorship with the No. 11 Toyota during last year’s Speedweeks at Daytona, the rumors persisted, particularly as Christopher Bell’s light grew brighter.

When forced to perform, Hamlin stepped up. This February, he won Daytona 500—his second Harley J. Earl trophy—and dedicated the victory to J.D. Team owner Joe Gibbs described the moment as “the most emotional and biggest win I've ever had in my life, in anything.”

Fast forward to last weekend at Phoenix. Under the direction of Chris Gabehart, his fifth crew chief since taking over the No. 11 car, Hamlin has enjoyed a banner season. He has scored career-high top fives (19), top 10s (23) and has posted his best average finish of 9.5.

Still, Hamlin had to win to reach the NASCAR’s final four at Homestead-Miami Speedway. After Texas, he knew the opportunity existed.

“It's so difficult to win these races,” Hamlin said after his Phoenix win. “So when you do, you execute the way we did, perform the way that we did, you always feel like you got a fighting chance.  

“I had all the parts and pieces I needed to go to Phoenix and win the race.  But it's all the unknowns that you don't know about. I just made sure I did my job. Chris worked really hard and did his job. Great to have a result like that.”

It’s those unknowns that have haunted Hamlin throughout his career. The uncertainty that has kept him from going all in.

Gabehart has done his best to identify and address the weaknesses from team strategy to the pit crew’s previous lackluster performances or Hamlin making simple mistakes such as speeding on pit road

“Well, he holds everyone accountable, everybody accountable, from top to bottom,” Hamlin said. “Even though this is his first year, it's like he's been doing this for a really, really, really long time.           

“He has on the crew chief side—the engineering side—he has quite a bit of experience. But managing the people is what typically is the challenge of first‑year crew chiefs. I think that's what he specializes in. He's just like Joe in the sense that he gets the most out of his guys, everybody. I'm not sure what it is, but he's got some motivation in him, for sure. 

“Every week he kind of gives me a little speech when I'm strapping in the car. His confidence in me is unwavering. He says things that otherwise I would just say, ‘Well, you're just pumping me up, making me feel good.’

"But he finds a way to make it relate and make you believe it.”

Now, Hamlin just has to find a way to believe in himself. One race—the Ford EcoBoost 400—stands between Hamlin and the title that has eluded him. The Chesterfield, Virginia driver, who turns 39 on Monday, has never won a championship in any of NASCAR’s top three divisions.

Hamlin needs to enter Sunday’s race convinced he can defeat the three champions he’s contending against. That’s the surest way to validate the trust J.D. Gibbs bestowed in the young short-tracker nearly two decades ago.